Daytrading by Ambush Update for Wednesday January 30, 2008
Portraying trades from 1/29/08
1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND

The focus has now shifted to the FOMC meeting which convened today and will conclude with an announcement tomorrow. The prevailing thought is we’ll see another 50 BP decline in rates. This has the stock market sailing along rather smartly so it follows we’d see some deterioration in the Bonds.

I sold 118-28 and was stopped at B/E because I’d rolled it there as we tapped -24. This was kind of a heartbreak after I was vindicated for holding onto the trade despite a move back to 119-01. I sold -28 again and was stopped at 119-01 losing 5 ticks, $156. At first blush these experiences would be perceived as frustrations. Indeed, when I first started making progress with my core beliefs I did view them as such. No more though and the more you learn, the more you advance your confidence the more you embrace the concepts at play in my methods you will come to view these as victories. How can that be, you ask. Really quite simple, say I … you might want to write this one down … IF YOU DON’T HAVE TO EARN ANYTHING BACK, IT WAS A WIN.

I bought 119-03 and exited at 119-09 for $187 and moving me into that “don’t have to earn it back” territory. Nothing else surfaced so we closed out for the day.

Tomorrow’s big 3 at the open are 119-16 , 119-00 and 120-00

2: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR

The USD is on the skids again as the FOMC meeting winds down. The consensus is the FED will due whatever is necessary to ward off the dreaded recession. This will add strength to commodity prices and thus the Looney benefits. I hear some talking 10100 by the weekend.

I sold 9997 and exited at B/E. I held this dang thing half a day to get this … yuk.

3: MARCH SWISS FRANC

We never got numbers, nothing done.

We’ll stay with the weekend numbers and think of better days.

4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000

The market has taken hold of the interest rate issue as their very own. Waht are we looking for? A bigger rate drop? Smaller? No, I’ll tell you what they’re looking for is words from the FED that signal clearly more cuts are in our future. The market thinks the FED will do any thing to counter the threat of recession. They just want to see it in print. What if we don’t? Lower? Yup.

Just before the RTH open we dropped sharply from 708 to 696. 14 points in 25 minutes. By the open the Russell was back to 700-702. The sudden pullback from 704 surprised me but we continued the watch. The failure at 704 was dramatic. I attempted a sell. The market was moving too fast to get anything better than 702.70 so I took it. I exited at 700.20 on an OB play. Having broken 700 there was no way I wanted to be around short the market as rose back above 700. I’ll take the $250. I bought 700.70 and exited at 705.50 on a very easy to OB play off the break of 706 and the subsequent fall back below it for $480. I sold 703.50 as 704 broke. I exited this trade at 701.30 for $220. I was less than thrilled with the fill as I used an OB play as we came back above 700. Granted it was movin’ quickly but I deserved better. I bought 700.70 and exited at 704.20 as it broke back south off several attempts to break higher than 705 for a $350 gain. My last trade of the day was a buy at 704.50 which I exited at 705.75 for $125.

All the weekend numbers are in play.

5: MARCH MINI $5 DOW

Today was 12400 day. I bought 12420 shortly after the open. I pretty much just let it run all day. It came back to near B/E 3 times during the day but never got to the point it was costing me big money so I held it. I got out on an OB off 125 at 12497 for $385. That was the sole trade for me for Tues.

Stay on the Weekend numbers.

6: FEBRUARY GOLD

Gold made a little break from 925 down to the lower end of the 920/930 chaannel spiking the last bit to break 920. I bought 921.50 and exited at 924.70 as 925 held resistance for $320. Gold finally got all the way up to break 928. It failed so fast at 928 I didn’t get a chance to even consider the sell there. I was done.

The 920/930 channel is it for tomorrow.